What is a Chinese political review or 政治審查?; Canada-U.S.-China relation; Polling; China’s economy
And French Ambassador contradicts his president on views regarding China
Dear China watchers, do you know what 缓兵之计 means? The four-character Chinese idiom refers to a military tactic of deliberately withdrawing forces from a position in order to gain an advantage later on. And that was the word that came to my mind when I read all the positive signals the Chinese government is sending to the outside world lately. With Jack Ma returning to the public eye, and Li Qiang touting the bright future of the private economy, whether China’s post-pandemic economy will flourish or flounder has become the million-dollar question that many China watchers are asking these days. While I sympathize with those who expect the former, I find it hard to share their optimism.
After all, the timing of Ma's public reappearance is a little suspicious as it coincides with the China Development Forum 2023 in Beijing, an international event aimed at attracting investors and businesspeople from around the world. It's hard not to think that his comeback is simply a show to rejuvenate potential investors. Think I’m too cynical? Well, seasoned China watchers are also familiar with another policy: “Hide and Bide” or “韬光养晦” in Chinese, which refers to a successful and long-term approach to international affairs by hiding true intentions and biding time. Unlike the West had hoped, the end goal for the Chinese Community Party was never to fundamentally transform the system into a more free-market economy or a democratic, multi-party state. Rather, these policies were viewed as prolonged yet temporary measures to accumulate strength and ultimately defeat its enemy. But here’s the catch, no one really knows how long that window will stay open. Nevertheless, I will be here with you to witness the tipping point.
In this special edition, we cover:
The new era of Canada-U.S-China relations
How Chinese media views Canada
What does Chinese political screening look like?
A quick update on Beijing’s foreign interference issue
Polls show foreign interference is very much a partisan issue in Canada
A long, China-centred speech by the French ambassador to Canada
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Canada-U.S.-China relation
It seems that the Canada-China relation has inevitably turned into a trilateral one. At the Eurasian Group’s U.S.-Canada summit in Toronto on Tuesday, China’s (alarming) rise was a recurring mention in the speeches of most speakers.
“He[Joe Biden] said, The United States chooses to link our future with Canada because we know that we will find no better partner. And I mean this from the bottom of my heart, no more reliable ally, no more steady friend. Together. Together, we have built a partnership that is an incredible advantage to both our nations,” said Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau delivering a keynote speech at the Eurasian Group’s U.S.-Canada summit in Toronto, Ontario.
Although it didn’t appear much in media coverage, the summit could mark a new chapter in Canada’s relations with China. And that is you have to think about China when talking about Canada-U.S. relations.
At the centre of Trudeau’s Made-In-Canada plan in the 2023 federal budget, converges three key political motives, as shown in his speech; A green economy that aligns with liberal-ish ideology, a plan to address labour market shortage, supposedly, and a supply chain circumventing authoritarian regimes to woo Ottawa’s strongest ally. With that, the following line repeated by the Prime Minister regarding his new budget makes a lot more sense.
"We're also taking action to strengthen our continental semiconductor ecosystem and reduce reliance on countries like China…This will create good jobs in Canada, boost competitiveness, and protect our economic and national security because in the 21st-century security policy is climate policy is economic policy," Trudeau said.
While the Liberal NDPs were busy on a post-budget tour rallying support, one of Trudeau's closest cabinet members, Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, was delivering key messages to allies in Brussels, against the backdrop of Finland's recent joining of NATO.
We followed Joly’s Twitter trail to see who she met at NATO’s foreign minister meeting, so you don’t have to:
Prior to the official meeting, she met with Roberta Metsola, President of the European Parliament.
Joly’s Swedish counterpart, Tobias Billstrom, to “discuss our joint efforts to support Ukraine in Russia's war of aggression” and “reinforced Canada's support for Sweden's accession to NATO”.
Lars Løkke Rasmussen, Foreign Minister of Denmark, an important partner of Canada in the Arctic.
Slovak’s Rastislav Kacer, we discussed our ongoing support to Ukraine and Canada's commitment to expand our presence in eastern Europe. Together, with Allies, we're working to ensure the stability and security of the region.
Last but not least, Pekka Haavisto, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Finland.
Canada via Chinese media
清肺排毒颗粒在加拿大获批非处方药上市 成为我国首个进入发达国家的抗疫中药 | Qingfei Paidu Granules approved for OTC sales in Canada, China's first traditional Chinese medicine in developed countries' anti-epidemic market, China Daily
I'm puzzled why this message appeared on Chinese news platforms this week. The article doesn't offer much beyond the headline. Here's the English version for those who are interested.
Optimism expressed for Canada-China business, China Daily
This is a write-up about the Chinese Ambassador to Canada Cong Peiwu’s remarks at a recent event hosted by Canada China Business Council.
Here are some quotes from the ambassador used in the article(they are focused on China’s economy):
“China will continue to be a desirable destination for investors from around the world, in particular for Canadian business owners, because China and Canada are closely intertwined economically, and we both benefit," said Ambassador Cong Peiwu.
"We share the vision of benefiting the people with a high degree of economic complementarily and a similar commitment to an open global economy," he said.
"If we were to use one single word to give an accurate account of China's economic outlook, I think the word we are looking for is ‘brighter', as Premier Li Qiang, our new premier mentioned, that we are fully confident that the Chinese economy will break through winds and waves and sail toward a brighter future".
加拿大帝国商业银行：加拿大央行料将按兵不动 但可能坚持加息倾向| CIBC: Bank of Canada expected to stand pat, but may maintain rate hike bias
加拿大卑诗省省长清明节赞扬华人先侨所作贡献 | British Columbia Premier praises the contributions made by Chinese pioneers and immigrants on Qingming Festival
The same article, in simplified Chinese, has been distributed on several popular Chinese websites.
The bulk part of the story is a statement from British Columbia's Premier David Eby.
What is political screening or 政治筛查 in China?
The latest: The Globe and Mail’s Asia correspondent Nathan VanderKlippe broke a story on Good Friday, corroborating an anecdote that has long been circling around in the Chinese community: the Chinese consulate in B.C. conducts political screening of potential leaders of local Chinese community organizations. These are not just ordinary Chinese cultural groups, but rather organizations that frequently host senior government officials from both Canada and China at their events, making them highly influential venues for political and economic exchanges.
The question: What exactly is included in a political screening conducted by the Chinese Communist Party? Here is a sample of a screening form for joining the Party.
https://twitter.com/gaoyu200812/status/862276668018245632?s=12&t=CF16s5CRevASxT1pSYnqVA
The form consists of complex political assessments that delve not only into the applicant’s background but also that of their family members, covering up to eight topics, such as the Cultural Revolution, The Tiananmen Square massacre, Falun Gong, terrorism, and more.
Note: In China, terrorism is defined broadly and includes anything from acts deemed threatening to the state's interests, to certain forms of peaceful dissent and activism.
Like many who grew up in China, I’m no stranger to the Chinese word for this process: 政审. It incentivizes family members to monitor each other and think twice before they speak or act in a way that could be seen as challenging the Party. As noted by Gao Yu, a prominent Chinese journalist, the contemporary version of 政审 can be even more cumbersome than during the Mao era.
Nowadays, all Chinese citizens living in China are usually subject to a political screening when applying for a job in the public sector. And culturally and pragmatically, for most people, those jobs provide a competitive, secure stream of income that is hard to find in the private sector.
The review conducted by the CCP can have a very wide family coverage spanning from immediate to extended family members to up to three generations, depending on what position you are applying for.
In a viral video during the pandemic, a police officer was seen warning a young man who refused to go to the quarantine camp that three generations of his family would be punished. the young man replied to the police: “This will be our last generation.” His response later became an online meme before getting censored.
That being said, the Chinese Communist Party is not the first to utilize this type of family punishment. Collective punishment was consistently used by emperors in ancient China for thousands of years. For the Party, the procedure is a straightforward method for control that has been proven effective.
Back to the story: The recording in VanderKlippe’s article, indicates that the Chinese consulate conducts these political reviews for at least the two organizations featured and under the reviews, candidates who support Taiwan and Hong Kong independence, among other things, are not eligible to become a chairperson.
Community groups like these are often the first place for new Chinese immigrants and international students to join to connect with people from their home country while getting adapted to Canada. For local politicians, it’s a great venue for them to tap into the ethnic group in their constituency. However, the leaders of such groups as revealed in the article, often have some kind of links with the consulates and by extension the Chinese Communist Party. This is alarming because the chairperson has the power within the organization to potentially censor or organize activities to align with the CCP's interests, creating a distorted image of the Chinese diaspora in Canada. More importantly, they are the one that gets to greet Canadian politicians, shake their hands and have conversations with them at various events hosted by the organization. If the CCP has made sure the community leaders all dance to its tunes, Canada is in desperate need to educate local politicians on how to handle tricky situations like this.
Beijing’s (alleged) interference in Canada
Five years ago, when Australia too had leaked security information released to the public, the government introduced new regulations banning foreign political donations and established a registry of foreign agents. But the same story is taking a slightly different form in Ottawa.
In an article from The Globe on Monday, four anonymous government officials said Ottawa has not made any progress on three significant measures presented last summer, including modernizing the Canadian Security Intelligence Service Act to enable foreign-interference information sharing.
Thursday was a busy day. First, CBC ran a story revealing that neither of the federal agencies tasked with the foreign inference probe has unfettered access to cabinet records. What I find most interesting is that the complaint in the two stories didn’t come from the public or even a specific named opposition party member, but from within the government, it seems.
After that, the news on that day evolved so fast that it was a little difficult to keep track of. Let’s start with the CTV story which uncovered more details on the special rapporteur.
*Note: A special rapporteur, in this context, is someone Trudeau appointed to investigate China’s election inference in Canadian elections and how Canada handled it. I think of it as a sort of a buffer between doing nothing and a public inquiry which some politicians and members of the public are pushing for.
Ok back to the intel published on Thursday. Based on the government document, the special rapporteur David Johnston, unlike the two federal agencies which according to the CBC story didn’t have inherent access to certain files, does by the book have access to national security intelligence resources, including “classified or unclassified records, documents and personnel.”
While the reporters and pundits were busy discussing the fresh details on Twitter, the government sent out a press release stating that a report on countering foreign interference had been delivered to Trudeau. The report included something that was reported by the Globe on Monday–you guessed it: the review and modernization of the CSIS Act, the Criminal Code, the Security of Information Act and the Canada Elections Act.
God, that was a lot to take in. And for readers in other middle powers, these details are probably immaterial. If that’s the case, allow me to leave you with this: I think the Canadian government is responding better to Beijing's foreign interference allegations than it did earlier. And unless there are more breaking stories, it's hard to expect Canadians to pay more attention to this issue than they already have.
When I see a middle power standing up to Beijing on its own turf, I'm reminded that it's a testament not to the power of the CCP, but rather to the strength and effectiveness of that particular democratic institution and its free press. Whether Canada will pass this test remains to be seen, but Canadians will be the ones to judge.
Speaking of Canadians, a new poll was released this week on what Canadians think about Ottawa’s recent efforts to address foreign election interference allegations.
Polling
It seems that foreign interference is still a partisan issue for Canadians. The key question in the polls was simple: Is the appointment of David Johnston, and this investigation a sincere effort by the Trudeau Liberals to get to the truth or an attempt to cover up what happened with China's interference in our national elections?
The “story” or headline from this poll is undoubtedly that Canadians are almost precisely divided on Trudeau’s investigation into Beijing’s alleged foreign interference in Canada. (52 percent believing it to be sincere and 48 percent a coverup) But the breakdown by party affiliation tells us the respondent’s views on the subject are strongly correlated with their political preferences.
Data Source: IPSOS
Having worked in market research, I do want to point out that the question was posed in a particular way that easily prompts the respondents to conflate their own political preferences; Instead of referring to the government in general, it was phrased as 'Trudeau's Liberal government.
Here’s the full report on the poll, if you are a nerd like me!
Diplomacy
Unlike French President Macron who just paid lip service to Xi’s pledges of peace, French Ambassador to Canada Michel Miraillet delivered a very different message on China at a Montreal Council on Foreign Relations conference on Tuesday.
In a speech titled France and Canada Facing the New World Order, Miraillet described China, along with Russia, as an authoritarian regime which seeks to change the world order to “establish the supremacy of force over the law.” While Marcon said in a tweet that he is convinced that China has a “major role to play” in building peace, his ambassador warned his luncheon audience that if Russia were to achieve victory over its war with Ukraine, China could soon set its sights on Taiwan. The full speech is here.
This certainly doesn’t mean that France’s president all of sudden had an epiphany and changed his opinion on Beijing to the opposite of his ambassador, I hope. What it looks like is, he might have taken a page from China and played a 缓兵之计 himself. But will Xi outmatch him? I’d say it’s likely.
Spotted:
Mary Ng, Minister of International Trade, will head a Canada Trade Mission to Chile on April 10-12, 2023, to explore clean technology opportunities. The trip aims to promote job-creating foreign investment, inclusive trade, and sustainable development of critical minerals.
China denies illegal fentanyl trafficking to Mexico, but the US DEA says the drug flows from China to Mexico, the US, and Canada.
Recommended reading
Now is the Time for Canada to Re-think Middle East Policy, Canadian Politics and Public Policy.
David McDonough: As China threat rises, the days of Canada as security freeloader are over, National Post