Trudeau’s China talk in Asia
Canada becomes a strategic partner at ASEAN
I made a mistake in our last email. The Canadian Parliament is not back in session but there have been significant developments in China-Canada relations this week, so while this may be a shorter update, I wanted to make sure it reaches your inbox.
Critics who have long complained about Canada's diminishing global influence may find this week inspiring as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau embarked on a three-stop trip to Southeast Asia to rehabilitate the country's standing in the region.
In just five days, Trudeau met with leaders from Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Australia, South Korea, the Philippines, and Singapore. While the substance that emerged from these meetings is yet to be unpacked, Canada’s message to the region is loud and clear: Canada is back in the region and it’s eager to engage. However, the country’s presence in the region needs to extend beyond its own interests, such as trade and investment; It also needs to show that we are gearing up to be a dependable partner, ready to contribute to climate change and security—critical concerns for the island countries in the region. Indeed, to survive in this turbulent time, Canada, and other middle powers alike, need to make themselves useful to their allies and strengthen those collaborations with like-minded partners. The Indo-Pacific region is of particular significance to China watchers because almost every country in the region considers China as a key trading partner.
Trudeau at ASEAN
While Canadians were sleeping on Tuesday night, Trudeau had a busy day meeting with world leaders at the ASEAN Summit.
Although the conversation's official readout didn't reference China at all, it primarily focused on trade, particularly exports, making it noteworthy for my fellow China watchers:
The two leaders noted the increasing ties between businesses, particularly in agri-food and fertilizer sectors; Trudeau also announced plans for a Team Canada Trade Mission to Indonesia as soon as next year and welcomed progress toward the restoration of access to the Indonesian market for Canadian halal products, including beef.
Why is this important? Canada, especially its agriculture industries, has found great success with China. Last year, China stood as the country's second-largest market for Canola exports, trailing closely behind the U.S.
Diversifying agri-food exports away from the Chinese market seems increasingly important. Especially after China has banned Canadian beef for almost two years.
Most of these trade-related efforts were promised with a relatively tight deadline with specifics, which demonstrates a strong commitment to trade in the region.
Interestingly, the accompanying press release issued by the Government is packed with more information on security; the word “security” appeared 11 times in the short document. Peeling back from the PR narratives, it showcases Ottawa’s awareness of how important the issue is for the island country and its willingness to offer assistance. The full release is here.
Below, I've provided links to readouts of other meetings along with some key terms. For anyone interested in these individual middle powers, please feel free to delve deeper. In summary, these meetings predominantly revolve around three key areas: trade, security, climate change, and in some cases, democracy, depending on the country involved.
Malaysia: democracy; trade and investment; defence and security; climate change.
Vietnam: trade; climate change; human rights. https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/readouts/2023/09/06/prime-minister-justin-trudeau-meets-prime-minister-vietnam-pham-minh-chinh
Australia: climate change; supply chain
South Korea: democracy; defence and security; trade
Philippines: agriculture and agri-food; education; clean technologies; immigration
Singapore: democracy; trade https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/readouts/2023/09/08/prime-minister-justin-trudeau-meets-prime-minister-singapore-lee-hsien
Trade Minister Mary Ng on China
While all eyes were on Trudeau and his dialogues, a media scrum with Ng and Canada’s Ambassador to Japan Ian McKay, who accompanied Trudeau on his trip to Indonesia, caught my attention. The following are the two key questions that readers from other middle powers and the U.S. might find insightful.
From the reporter: “In this part of the world, there is the sentiment that Canada was only investing when it was beneficial for Canada. There was a hesitation on the part of some of the leaders, as you mentioned…... Do you feel that that sentiment has changed……?”
Ng gave a pretty solid response: “Absolutely. That sentiment is changing. In this one year. I am seeing momentum and the momentum is coming because we're working together…..that's real investments on a whole range of initiatives. I mean, we're opening up an agri-food office in the Philippines as an example. So these are real tangible initiatives that Canada is investing in and working on together with Indonesia. But also with the region. And I think that that's what they're seeing and it's because of that, that you're seeing Canada being elevated to strategic partner status.”
China’s role in ASEAN: The second relevant question was posed to McKay. From the reporter: “Would you please help us understand a little bit how ASEAN in general sees China and the role that China plays? And how can Canada help them from that point of view?”
McKay: “Well, each country in ASEAN in the Indo-Pacific has a unique and separate relationship with China. I don't think you can define the whole block’s relationship…….The Indo-Pacific strategy is Canada's biggest foreign policy shift in decades, to allow Canada to engage in this region of 40 countries in a much more substantive, comprehensive, sustainable way. And through that, we are then as Canada better able to have a more sophisticated bilateral relationship with China by being more present in this region.”
Ng said she’s expected to spend more time in the region next year.
Trudeau’s China talk with Bloomberg
A good interview is like a carefully choreographed dance. It requires composition, wit, and a willingness from both parties to play. When done right, it is engaging, occasionally heated, and, above all, informative. That’s what crossed my mind when I watched Trudeau‘s sit-down conversation with Erik Schatzker. The conversation started with general, open-ended questions, and transitioned to the more confrontational inquiries—so nobody had to squirm in their seats for too long.
This hour-long discussion touched on some of the most pressing concerns in China-Canada relations, particularly in areas where the world is closely observing Canada. Understandably, the interview made headlines.
Diplomacy with China: Let’s start with a question that prompted a clear answer from Trudeau. When it comes to China-Canada relations, Trudeau's overarching stance is that there's no space for political rapprochement, as suggested by this headline from Bloomberg. While he did describe the relationship as stable and that he’s open to working on certain issues with Beijing, the quick answer is no and Beijing’s actions in recent years are to blame.
Trade with China: Another important question that Trudeau answered to an extent is whether Canada would be forging closer ties and better access to Chinese markets. From Trudeau: “So for me and certainly for the G7, as we've had conversations around this, the understanding that we cannot simply be trying to elbow each other out of the way for access to the Chinese market, but we need to be more thoughtful and conservative on how we move forward. Nuance in our approaches is really the only way to go.”
Foreign Agent Registry & NATO Spending: Schatzker pressed Trudeau on three crucial China-related inquiries. The first pertains to Ottawa's apparent hesitance in establishing a foreign agent registry to counter foreign interference–something that its allies have adopted years ago. The second involves Canada's failure to meet NATO's minimum 2 percent military spending requirement. However, Trudeau offered limited responses to either of these concerns.
The full on-camera interview is here.
In a few lines
After months of delay, the federal government has finally chosen Justice Marie-Josée Hogue to lead a public inquiry into foreign interference. Beijing is not happy, while Trudeau says he will testify with 'enthusiasm' if called as a witness at the inquiry. We will follow this closely in the coming weeks.
The U.S. and the Canadian navies sailed two warships through the Taiwan Strait on Saturday. The Canadian ship was flanked by three Chinese warships equipped with missiles and torpedoes.