The China-angle on India-Canada tension; Taiwan's love affair with Canada
Plus, a parliamentary briefing on the Indo-Pacific strategy.
Dear China watchers, welcome to The Middlepowers.
On the day Canada's much-anticipated public inquiry began, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made a shocking announcement to all Canadians and the world.
“Over the past number of weeks, Canadian security agencies have been actively pursuing credible allegations of a potential link between agents of the Government of India and the killing of a Canadian citizen, Hardeep Singh Nijjar.
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The news, or more precisely, its timing, not only triggered diplomatic tit-for-tats between India and Canada but redefined the domestic conversation on foreign interference, shifting the public's attention from solely focusing on China to a broader context.
In a media scrum on Tuesday, Trudeau told reporters that he had been working with the intelligence agencies to confirm this allegation over the summer and decided to go public with it now simply because “Canadians have a right to know”.
Whether this was a strategic move for the liberal party or not, Canadians’s attention is shifting. The following day's question period on the hill was marked by spats with the Liberal Party accusing the Conservatives of solely focusing on China when it comes to foreign interference.
Mr. Randeep Sarai (Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Veterans Affairs and Associate Minister of National Defence, Lib.):
“...Did Conservatives give any information on why they would not be speaking today? Did former prime minister Harper call and say ‘Conservatives shut up. Go home. It's time to not speak. You cannot speak about India, but you must speak about China’? If I recall prior to the House rising in June, it was all about foreign interference, but now with another country coming up, it is dead silence. I see canaries on the other side who are not chirping today. Could the member make some comments on that?”
And from Ruby Sahota (Brampton North, Lib.):
“.....We know the Conservatives were fixed on just setting down the issue of China. I want to know how the member feels about having a broader scope to make sure that all Canadians are protected and that our democratic institutions are safe from harm from the many countries out there that seek to attack Canada.”
The escalating tension with India also cast doubt over Canada’s recent Indo-Pacific strategy. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh told Politico that given the allegations connecting India to a Canadian murder case, it's worth reconsidering the strategy. Contrary to Jagmeet, however, Trudeau’s cabinet defended the government’s plan.
In a media scrum on Tuesday, newly-minted President of Treasury Board Anita Anand was asked the following question:
“Last year there was a policy on Indo-Pacific policy. It was a way of getting away from China. In light of what India's saying about Canada being too soft on ‘sick terrorism’. Are we going too fast in trying to build some relationship with India?”
“You will recall that our Indo-Pacific strategy is prudent and is particularly targeted at areas where we have a contribution to make from a geostrategic standpoint, building people-to-people ties in the region….”
Anand’s answer echoes what Trade Minister Mary Ng told Politico. She said the strategy was comprehensive, and India is a key ally in the region.
If Ottawa adopts the same approach it has been using to deal with China, separating discussions on human rights and trade, then we should not expect significant changes in its trade policies. However, it's important to recognize that we operate within a different geopolitical environment, where politics wields greater influence over domestic and international policies in democracies. As Trudeau said repeatedly to his audience, “It's increasingly clear that economic policy is climate policy is security policy is social policy.”
Foreign Interference
This week, we've seen a number of elements under this theme emerging in addition to what happened with India.
Canada officially initiated a long-awaited public inquiry into foreign interference on Monday. While the investigation has a broader scope, Beijing's involvement in these alleged activities is taking the spotlight in public perception. The full Terms of Reference of the investigation is here.
Justice Marie-Josée Hougue, designated to lead the inquiry, is already feeling the heat as Green Party co-leader Elizabeth May reportedly sends a letter to Hogue seeking access to top-secret intelligence documents examined by former special rapporteur David Johnston, who was tasked with assessing foreign interference in Canadian elections.
A quick refresher for readers from outside Canada: When allegations that China meddled in the past federal elections, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau amid mounting pressure to announce a public inquiry, appointed Johnston to look into allegations and determine whether a public inquiry was warranted. He resigned from the position in June following a non-binding NDP motion passed by a majority of MPs, calling for Johnston's resignation due to a conflict of interests.
This week, Conservative MP Michelle Rempel Garner tabled a document showing that a Toronto-based law firm was awarded a nearly CAD$4.5 million contract to work on Johnston's unpopular probe. In an interview with CTV News on Thursday, Garner called the expense a “complete money waste.”
Global News broke another story about Beijing’s interference in Canada. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police is investigating the suicide of a Chinese Canadian man, Wei Hu, in 2021. The article says Wu was targeted as part of China's Operation Fox Hunt campaign, a global fugitive apprehension program aimed at individuals accused, whether justifiably or not, of financial crimes.
It's worth noting that the subject of Beijing's transnational repression against expatriates has only gained traction recently. Canada's stance on this issue is out of step compared to other middle powers. A human rights report published this week says intimidation by foreign governments against people residing in Canada has not “spread from the leadership of security agencies to federal and local law enforcement.” The report also says Canada is not meeting its international obligations to protect newcomers who frequently encounter pressure from the authoritarian governments they left behind. While the report covers beyond just China, it does highlight a few specific recommendations concerning Canada's dealings with the People's Republic of China. The full nine-page report is here.
Do you still remember Han Dong? The ex-liberal MP allegedly advised a senior Chinese diplomat to postpone the release of Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, the two Canadians detained by China at that time. Dong told CBC this week that he had met with Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc last week and is waiting to learn whether he can rejoin the Liberal caucus.
Committee Notes
Indo-Pacific Strategy; Taiwan; Deterrence of China;
The Standing Committee on National Defence had a briefing on the Indo-Pacific strategy and naturally, there was a lot of interest in China from MPs of all parties. Here’s a breakdown of their inquiries.
Beijing’s military capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region: While there was great interest in this question across the board, unfortunately, no specifics were given to the MPs on this.
Chinese buoys: Christine Normandin, (Bloc) asks: regarding the Chinese buoy found in Japan’s sea area. Are they a threat? How many of those are there? From Paul Prévost, director of the Strategic Joint Staff Staff at the Defence Department: “Yes, it is worrisome. We are aware of these buoys. They're all over the planet actually. China leaves them everywhere….So our services are following these especially when we find them in allied territory. We share that information.”
Deter China’s power in Indo-Pacific: Normandin asks how could Canada contribute. From Prévost: “....the second is high technology, and Canada has a good tool to contribute in this regard…..underwater technology…we have the hypersonic capacity or anti-hypersonic capacity…AI is some of the high technology or the cutting edge technology.”
Ex-fighter pilots hired by Beijing: James Bezan, (Conservative) asks: “How can Canada or five-eye partners do more to prevent those that are chasing the buck and not thinking about our national security?” From Prévost: “We're looking at how we're tightening in defence to make sure that our members, when they leave the organization understand that what they've learned, their skills, their information is to remain secret.”
Taipei Economic and Cultural Office, the country’s de-facto embassy in Canada, was invited to participate in the briefing as well. There’s no doubt that the two parties have an immense affinity for each other, btw. The goals of this exchange are crystal clear: how the two countries can work together to fend off a more aggressive China and what Canada can learn from Taiwan in terms of resisting Beijing’s meddling. That said, national security is a wild beast and the committee touched upon a wide range of subjects.
Here are some highlights:
Supply chain: Darren Fisher, (Liberal) asks: “...with respect to natural resources and critical minerals and advanced manufacturing. Can you give us here at the committee any insight on where Canada and Taiwan can deepen our industrial and economic relationship?” Representative Harry Ho-Jen Tseng made sure to point out the difference between trade and investment: “This supply chain issue is something we regard as very important now. There are dialogues going on between officials between our two countries…Specifically, I want to point out that your critical minerals are very important. We have dialogues going on. But right now it is not mature yet and there is a different objective in seeing this because it is not trade that we are talking about…You are actually looking for investment in Canada to develop the critical minerals. Perhaps we are not ready for an investment yet. We are more talking about trade.”
Special Canada-China Committee: During Canadian MPs’ trip to Taiwan earlier this year, a report with 18 recommendations was frequently presented, and Tseng was asked for his non-official response to those suggestions. “That has been taken with some kind of reservation from the federal government, they can address the issues in a way that would leave more flexibility for us to work out. For example…recommendation 12. This recommendation strongly considers the Minister of International Trade…to visit Taiwan to sign FIPA…is to be signed by the heads of the Canadian Trade Office in Taipei and Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Canada…but I believe this is too semantic in answering the question…if you have a minister of international trade visiting Taiwan, she doesn't have to be there to sign this. She's welcome to visit at any time because the purpose is to promote international trade between us.”
Military cooperation: Bezan asks: “Can Canada be doing more in working with Taiwan in deepening our military cooperation and relationship between our two defence forces?” Tsing responded: “We certainly welcome more cooperation between our militaries. So [an] enhanced military-to-military relationship is always very positive to us, especially [since] we are like-minded partners. But we also take into account the fact that Canada is also trying to build up your own naval forces. And the fact that you already have, according to your Indo-Pacific strategy, you are adding one more warship in East Asia...So three ships to do the transit all the passage in the Indo-Pacific area. [it] is a very meaningful thing to us.”
The second parliamentary committee we are featuring is the Standing Committee on Science and Research. In June, it launched a study on the university R&D grants used in Canada-China collaborations. As some of our readers are aware, Canada, as a middle power with advanced research resources in STEM fields, faces real national security threats from Beijing that have long been ignored. Similar to other China-related topics in Canada, this issue is only gaining traction in recent years.
This week, the committee invited two seasoned China watchers and one Chinese-Canadian professor with first-hand experience of Chinese espionage. Here are some key takeaways from this week’s meeting of the committee:
Increase funding: Richar Cannings, (NDP) asks: “Would you say that they're…part of the solution would be for Canadian researchers to be better funded for Canadian students? So that the lures that are dangled in front of them aren't quite so attractive.” Professor Benjamin Fung at McGill University suggested two ways to tackle this problem: “One way to tackle this is to increase the research funding so that the local students have more opportunity to do active research in Canada. Another way to tackle the problem is to inform the professors basically, raise awareness among the engineering and science professors.”
Collaboration between provinces and the feds: The former provincial minister posed an interesting question to the invitees on how the province can play a role in disseminating information about the risks. Former diplomat Gordon Houlden had the best answer: “Federal-provincial is difficult. I accept that. But I refuse to be, I mean, I would have given up decades ago if I thought that was the case, that provinces and the federal government can still collaborate and it's in their interest to do so…not taking directions from Ottawa. It’s a means of sitting down on organized committees that meet on a regular basis, to come up with common approaches and to share those approaches to frustrate our enemies and promote our interests.”
Miscellaneous
Former detainee of Beijing, Michael Kovrig, was seen at a United Nations forum hosted by the Canadian government, calling on countries to work together for freedom. He also tweeted an article by Canadian journalist Justin Lin for Foreign Policy on China’s interference in Canada.
In an exclusive interview, Taiwan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Roy Chung Lee thanked Canada for its recent navy frigate sailing through the Taiwan Strait. He also talked about the similar tactics Beijing had been using to tame the two counties.
According to Reuters, investor sentiment on China is shifting as fund managers reduce their exposure cuts. After August's record 90 billion yuan (US$12.34 billion) Chinese stock sell-off by foreigners, net selling has since slowed to 20 billion yuan this month.
There was interest in trade with China specifically regarding the Tibetan Autonomous Region this week on the hill.
From Randall Garrison (NDP):
“(c) since 2020, has there been an increase in interest or communications at Canada’s trade offices in China from companies about exporting or importing goods or conducting business in the TAR, and, if so, from which companies; (d) are there plans for Canada to open a trade office in Lhasa, TAR, and, if not, under what circumstances would Canada make such plans; ”
“With regard to (c), available records show no such interest or inquiries to Canada’s trade offices. With regard to (d), there are no plans for Canada to open a trade office in Lhasa in the Tibetan Autonomous Region, TAR.”