TMP roundup: Why are these Taiwanese“腐女” quitting; Philippines stands tall: How a middle power navigates tensions between China and US
Plus, those balloons. What intelligence is Beijing collecting from them?
Dear China watchers, do you know what 腐女 (fǔ nǚ) means? Derived from a Japanese word, the term refers to female fans who are obsessed with romantic or sexual relationships between men. (Wait, wait, hear me out. I promise there’s a serious point to this!) I remember the surprise on my non-Chinese friend's face when I told her that I had never watched the drama "陈情令" or "The Untamed" on Netflix. Her eyes lit up as she talked about the two male protagonists and chattered endlessly about how adorable they were in the show. The subculture of male-to-male fiction or art has some of the most diehard fans I’ve ever seen on the internet. Yet, many Taiwanese 腐女(fǔ nǚ) have decided to “disassociate from the fandom” or 退圈. Many of the TV shows that these fans obsess over are available for free on YouTube and often have strong political messages behind them, serving as a potential means for Beijing to increase its cultural influence globally. The Chinese government, however, has been reining in the unbridled industry in recent years. Starting from blacklisting actor Zhang Zhehan for taking pictures in front of a Japanese shrine, to repeated criticisms of the government against the subculture, to the incarceration of a writer, in September 2021, the State Administration of Radio, Film, and Television officially imposed a crackdown on the industry, effectively cutting off the once-thriving Chinese industry chain. The government's top-to-bottom censorship has led to various factions within the community reporting one another, often simply due to differences in taste. The resulting chaos is reminiscent of a subdued version of Cultural Revolution 2.0.
Just like the Chinese tech firms that were forced to delist from the U.S. stock market, it seems the biggest obstacle for Chinese cultural products to go global lies in their home turf.
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In the spirit of digging your own hole, we will kick off our newsletter with a piece of news from Turkey where Beijing’s (blatant) attempt to incite conflicts in the country has backfired. Then we zoom into arguably the most vulnerable country in the Indo-Pacific in the unfortunate but possible case of a China-Taiwan war. How should a middle power like the Philippines navigate between Beijing and the U.S. while protecting its own people? That’s a question that would resonate with all of our readers. Next up, we take a closer look at a German story that hasn't received much coverage before parsing what the Taiwanese and Chinese media said about the KMT Deputy Chairman’s ongoing trip to China.
Last but not least, we take notes from the official newspaper where the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party talks up Germany and throws shade at the Japanese economy.
Turkey
On February 9, a video by Instagram user Mutlu Aile Sırları went viral. It revealed that Chinese journalists who came to report on the Turkish disaster offered money to victims in exchange for criticism of the Turkish government's poor relief efforts and praise for the Chinese rescue team. The victims refused and even called the police to drive the journalists away.
Aile Sırları commented, "This is not the time for political games. The people of #Turkey should come together to overcome this tragedy."
Interestingly I can’t find the original video from his Instagram anymore.
Indo-Pacific
A Chinese coast guard ship used a “military-grade laser” to disrupt a resupply mission to the Philippine troops. The laser glare temporarily blinded the crew of the Filipino coast guard boat, forcing it to retreat.
And yes, you know this happened in the disputed South China Sea. The vessel was en route to a stranded navy vessel that the Philippine government has used for years to claim the Second Thomas Shoal.
As many of you know, the Chinese coast guard had tried to obstruct the Philippine vessels in the disputed waters before. However, according to Philippine coast guard spokesperson Commodore Armand Balilo, this was the first time Beijing used lasers and caused physical harm to Filipino personnel. (The Australian government did accuse a Chinese navy ship of directing a laser at its military surveillance aircraft last February)
Contrary to the Philippine military that called on China to restrain its forces and stop committing any "provocative act", the office of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos declined to comment.
As I read that line, it brought to mind an ASPI analysis on the China-Philippine relations published shortly after Marcos' visit to Beijing in January, during which China said it was ready to manage maritime issues "cordially" and proposed a slew of economic collaborations.
“Cooperation doesn’t mean China will bury its ambitious South China Sea interests. It means China will try pursuing those interests peacefully to quell tensions until it can no longer achieve those interests without reverting to an aggressive posture—just like the last time it swapped ‘win–win’ cooperation for win–lose brinkmanship, ” writes Nick Danby.
I think the approach President Marcos took to navigate between the two superpowers serves as an excellent example for middle powers globally.
On Sunday, President Marcos expressed openness to having a Visiting Forces Agreement with Japan but then also told reporters he would be cautious in pursuing a pact "because we do not want to appear provocative.
Germany
The following business story isn’t receiving the attention it deserves.
Sany Heavy Industry, China's largest engineering machinery manufacturer, is seeking to make history by potentially becoming the first Chinese company to dual-list on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange under a mechanism for cross-border listings and investment.
The mechanism, Shanghai-London Stock Connect, was expanded to include Switzerland and Germany by Beijing last year.
Why the hype? Well, previously, Chinese companies have listed or announced plans to list on the Swiss stock exchange instead. In fact, Sany Heavy Industry had abandoned an earlier plan to list on the Swiss exchange before turning to Germany.
In this Chinese article from Sina News, the company spokesperson highlighted Germany's significant economic presence in Europe and the prominent position of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange in the European capital market due to its size.
Germany's domestic intelligence agency continues to warn the public about China’s interference. The head of the agency told a local newspaper that China is expanding its spy activities against Berlin, shifting from economic to political espionage.
"China is pursuing a long-term strategy to implement its goals," said Thomas Haldenwang.
Taiwan
I noted three pieces of Taiwan-related news for you.
For some reason, KMT(Taiwan’s main opposition party) Vice Chairman Andrew Hsia's multi-city trip to China received limited coverage in the Chinese state media this week, with only People.cn running a short article about him on Monday. The piece, of course, signals the controversial “1992 Consensus”, a precondition set by the PRC for engaging in cross-strait dialogue.
In contrast to the politically charged emphasis of Chinese state media, the KMT-friendly publication Focus Taiwan sidestepped the political narratives. Instead, Hsia was quoted saying the delegation had achieved the three main objectives of the visit: attending to the needs of Taiwanese residing in China, communicating the difficulties faced by Taiwanese SMEs due to Chinese regulations, and becoming acquainted with the new Chinese officials responsible for Taiwan affairs.
Hsia embarked on his trip last week amid increased tensions and has held discussions with high-ranking Chinese officials, but said he would not meet with President Xi Jinping.
Financial Times’ Taiwan correspondent Kathrin Hille wrote a piece that uncovered frequent Chinese military balloon flights in Taiwan’s airspace in recent years, far more than previously known.
In addition to frequency, the story also added another insight into Beijing’s sprawling military balloon programme: According to people briefed on the matter in Taiwan and a US ally, the balloons have been collecting atmospheric data for use in radar and missile systems.
Meanwhile, South Korea has appointed a new envoy to Taiwan. Former Korean Security Agency of Trade and Industry President Lee Eun-ho will replace Representative Chung Byung-won. The change comes after South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol took office in May.
People’s Daily headlines
Middle powers featured in the official newspaper of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party
Monday
东盟经济实现持续复苏（国际视点）| Opinion: ASEAN's Economy Achieves Sustainable Recovery
深化对华合作 加强互联互通 | Deepening Cooperation with China, Strengthening Interconnectivity
“亚洲开发银行不久前发布的《2022年亚洲发展展望》定期补充报告说，由于马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国和越南的消费和旅游业强劲复苏，亚洲开发银行将东盟2022年的增长预期从5.1%上调至5.5%。
东盟前秘书长林玉辉表示，通过有效落实《东盟全面复苏框架》及其行动计划，东盟已成为一个更强大、更安全和更灵活的共同体，本地区的贸易已恢复到疫情前水平。经合组织预计，2023年东盟经济将增长5.2%。
...东盟是吸引外资最多的地区之一，目前东盟吸引的外资占全球投资总额10%。“尽管面临增长放缓和通胀等挑战，但东盟经济增长动力十足，我们对其经济前景保持乐观。”
“According to a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report, the Asian Development Outlook 2022, thanks to the strong recovery of the consumption and tourism industries in Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, the ADB has raised its growth forecast for ASEAN in 2022 from 5.1% to 5.5%.
Former ASEAN Secretary-General Lin Yuhui said ASEAN has become a stronger, safer, and more flexible community due to the effective implementation of the ASEAN Comprehensive Recovery Framework. He noted that trade in the region has returned to pre-pandemic levels, and the OECD expects the ASEAN economy to grow by 5.2% in 2023.
…that ASEAN is one of the most attractive regions for foreign investment, accounting for 10% of the total global investment. Despite challenges such as slowing growth and inflation, ASEAN's economic momentum is strong, and its economic outlook is promising.”
“东盟在促进经济共同体建设同时，积极扩大同中国的合作，为经济复苏注入动力。
在东盟与中国互为最大贸易伙伴的基础支撑以及2022年生效的《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）推动下，东盟经济实现较快复苏。据中国海关统计，2022年东盟与中国进出口总额为6.52万亿元人民币，增长15%。东盟秘书长高金华表示，从长远来看，RCEP将为所有成员国带来巨大利益，因为它促进了商品的自由流通并有助于吸引外资。各成员国不仅仅是短期受益，还关乎中长期利益，有利于相关国家间的中长期合作。”
While promoting the construction of an economic community, ASEAN is actively expanding cooperation with China to inject impetus into economic recovery.
Given that ASEAN and China are each other's largest trading partners and the "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement" (RCEP) is set to come into force in 2022, ASEAN's economy has achieved a rapid recovery. China Customs statistics show that total import and export between ASEAN and China is expected to reach 6.52 trillion yuan in 2022, a 15% increase. ASEAN Secretary-General Gao Jinhua notes that in the long run, RCEP will bring significant benefits to all member countries. It will facilitate flow of goods and attract foreign investment. The member countries will not only achieve short-term benefits but also realize medium- and long-term interests, which will contribute to cooperation among relevant countries over the medium and long term.
Tuesday
The paper's A3 要闻(Important News) section is filled with middle power headlines. These articles don't go beyond their titles, so I'm just listing some of them here.
王毅会见泰国副总理兼外长敦 | Wang Yi meets with Thai Deputy Prime Minister Don Tun
秦刚同泰国副总理兼外长敦举行会谈 | Qin Gang holds talks with Thailand's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Don Tun
王毅将访问法国、意大利、匈牙利和俄罗斯并赴德国出席第五十九届慕尼黑安全会议 | Wang Yi to visit France, Italy, Hungary and Russia, attend the 59th Munich Security Conference in Germany
孙春兰将访问南非、希腊并举行中南高级别人文交流机制第三次会议 | Sun Chunlan to visit South Africa and Greece, hold third meeting of China-South Africa High-Level People-to-People and Cultural Exchange
法兰克福春季消费品博览会举行 “中国消费品牌愈发赢得市场青睐”（国际视点）| Opinion:
Chinese consumer brands gain popularity at Frankfurt Spring Consumer Goods Fair
“根据会计师事务所毕马威2022年的消费者调查报告，81%的德国人认为可持续性十分重要，这与意大利、英国和瑞士等其他欧洲国家的调查结果相似，意味着消费者选购产品会更加“挑剔”，越来越重视产品的来源和材质。”
“According to a consumer survey report by accounting firm KPMG in 2022, 81% of Germans believe that sustainability is very important. This finding is consistent with the results of surveys conducted in other European countries, such as Italy, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland. It means that consumers are becoming increasingly ‘picky’ and are willing to pay more attention to the source and materials of products.”
“本届展会上，来自中国的展商数量超过400家。一系列科技感十足的前沿消费产品...‘每天接待的客户数量，是疫情前展会的两到三倍，而且大部分都是新客户。’”
“At the exhibition, over 400 Chinese exhibitors showcased a series of cutting-edge consumer products with a sense of technology…‘The number of customers received every day is two to three times that of the previous exhibition before the epidemic, and most of them are new customers,’ said Ji Ye, who’s in charge of a Chinese glass product company.
….全球消费需求受到很大影响，中国企业面对的国际竞争愈加激烈。加强研发和创新，成为参展中国企业的共识。
“‘固守传统产品是行不通的，必须推出新品，通过加大研发投入，生产出符合国际最新潮流的产品。’上海一家工艺品企业负责人仲臻对记者说。
“…global consumer demand has been greatly impacted. Chinese companies are facing fierce international competition. Thus, the participating Chinese enterprises have reached a consensus on the need to enhance research and development and innovation.
‘Sticking to traditional products is not feasible. We must launch new products and increase investment in research and development to produce products that meet the latest international trends,’ Zhong Zhen, who’s in charge of a Shanghai handicraft company, told reporters.”
日本破产企业数量激增 | Bankruptcies on the Rise in Japan
八成受访企业“切身感受到日元快速贬值导致成本增加” | Eighty percent of the companies interviewed "feel the rapid depreciation of the yen has led to increased costs"