Syria lost strong supporters in the Lebanese parliament following the 2022 election results
or did it?
The Lebanese election continues to be top of mind this week. The anti-establishment opposition has secured 13 seats in the Lebanese parliament, giving the crisis-ridden country a glimmer of hope. All eyes are on these new players from civil society to see if they can transform the status quo.
For today’s newsletter, we’re focusing on some of the changes in the new Lebanese parliament and what they could mean.
In Lebanon
Syrian President Bashar Al Assad’s administration appears to have incurred a big loss in the Lebanese 2022 election.
Hezbollah, a Shia party and a close ally of Syria, suffered major blows in the Lebanese elections, with many of the party’s political allies from the ruling elite losing seats to the anti-establishment opposition.
Iran-backed Hezbollah and its allies have held a parliamentary majority since 2018.
People in Lebanon cast their votes last Sunday. While Hezbollah retained its 13 seats, the pro-Hezbollah coalition lost 13 per cent of the seats it held in the previous parliament.
The election also saw the downfall of four prominent pro-Hezbollah candidates with close ties to the Syrian regime. The loss is an indication of waning Syrian influence in Lebanon’s future.
Check out this visualization for more results.
A secret Syrian agent: While it appears that none of the independent or anti-establishment candidates have direct links to Syria, there’s no guarantee that they won’t switch sides.
In fact, a newly elected independent MP, Firas Al-Salloum, might have already shown his true colours.
A video circulating on social media showed Al-Salloum, who won the Alawites seat in Tripoli, celebrating his victory to a song idolizing Syria’s president Bashar Al Assad. Al-Salloum was running on an independent electoral list called Real Change. The list is led by two Sunni Muslim men, a businessman and the secretary general of the Islamic Group, a Sunni Islamist party.
The video was met with public disdain and a statement from the Islamic Group expressing their surprise and disappointment. They called on Al-Salloum to resign, explaining that they don’t think he represents them or the Real Change electoral list.
In a statement in Arabic, Al-Salloum did not deny dancing to the song, but said he represents the Alawites and all the Lebanese people and doesn’t belong to any political party.
He later told Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar that he will not resign. He added that joining any of the existing parliamentary blocs is under consideration.
How did Syria get involved in Lebanon anyway?
Well, Syria’s presence in Lebanon goes back to the beginning of the Lebanese civil war. At the time, Syria deployed its troops to Lebanon to aid Christian militias following an invitation from Suleiman Franjieh, Lebanon’s president at the time.
Syrian troops remained in Lebanon for close to 30 years, during which Syria closely interfered with Lebanon’s politics and economy. Despite withdrawing its troops, the Syrian regime continues to exert influence in Lebanon through Hezbollah and its allies including the Shia Amal Party and the Free Patriotic Movement.
Lebanon became an economic lifeline for Syria during the Syrian civil war. For example, a 2020 report found that 400 million dollars worth of diesel and flour, which were subsidized by the Lebanese government, were smuggled from Lebanon to Syria annually for years.
West could be a winner: Syria and Iran are not the only foreign agents interfering in Lebanese affairs. While none of the parliamentary blocs secured a majority in the 2022 election, the scales of power have slightly tipped in favour of parties with ties to the west.
Backed by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, the Lebanese Forces Party became the most powerful Christian party in parliament, beating President Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement Party.
Aoun, who has been Hezbollah’s political ally since 2006, will soon be replaced as the new parliament elects a new president in October.
According to the Lebanese National Pact, by which political power is divided among religious sects in Lebanon, the president must be a Maronite Christian.
So it’s very likely that the next president will be affiliated with the Lebanese Forces, giving them more power.
The Lebanese Forces have been a long-time critic of Hezbollah and its weapons, a stance which aligns with the United States. The U.S. has designated Hezbollah as a terrorist group since 1997 and has sanctioned individuals and institutions related to the party. The U.S. also backs a U.N. resolution that called for disbanding and disarmament of all militias in Lebanon
Hezbollah is the only party in Lebanon that admits to having a military arm. Hezbollah’s secretary general Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah maintains the weapons are to defend Lebanon.
Most of Hezbollah’s opponents in Lebanon called for disarming the party in the lead-up to the 2022 election. But whether their calls turn into action remains to be seen as analysts expect Hezbollah will not be making compromises when it comes to its weapons.
What to look forward to: It’s still too soon to tell the direction which Lebanon’s national defence strategy will take. Lebanon will remain under a caretaker government until the parliament elects a new government following negotiations with Aoun.
But analysts expect the lack of a parliamentary majority could delay the process, as parliamentary blocs butt heads to choose a ministerial lineup.
In China
Oh boy, what a week we’ve had. It was absolutely hard to choose from the flurry of news that happened this week. Shanghai pledges to lift its lockdown as early as June; Canada has finally joined its Five-Eye allies in banning Huawei’s 5G technology from the country; Above all, the continuing AND mutual decoupling between the U.S. and China.
We’ve heard a lot about how the west, especially the U.S., is shifting away from the most sought-after market in the world. For example, senior officials in the U.S. and the European Union are enhancing their trade ties to counter Russia’s war in Ukraine and China. They have agreed to expand collaboration on supply chains for critical technologies including semiconductors and materials used in their production. And the Five-Eye allies, the U.S., U.K., Canada, Australia and New Zealand have all banned Huawei’s 5G technology. This week, however, we also saw the People’s Republic of China (PRC) mirroring that strategy by keeping capital within its country. - Lu
An internal Communist Party directive forbids senior party members from owning property abroad or stakes in overseas businesses, whether directly or through spouses and children.
The details: The directive prohibits ministerial-level officials from holding—directly or indirectly through their spouses and children—any real estate abroad or shares in entities registered overseas. In addition, neither senior officials nor members of their immediate families are allowed to create accounts with overseas financial institutions unless they have legitimate reasons for doing so—such as study or work.
The endless implications: This move might seem trivial–after all, who cares what the top party members in China can or cannot do? If anything, it might even be a good thing for the overheated housing market in North America without all the competition from them. Well, for one, by keeping the voting members’ capital onshore, this directive enhances, if not guarantees, President Xi’s power within the party prior to the party’s 20th national congress. A meeting where Xi will likely realize his intention to stay on as party chief for a third term. Xi, with his unprecedented amount of power as a Chinese president, has changed the constitution by eliminating the presidential term limit and is expanding state power in the private sector. And of course, the consolidation of his absolute power, in return, has an implication for the west.
In the long term, this could also be the beginning of a larger scale decoupling or isolationist policy coming from China. As most China watchers know, the communist party often implements a certain set of rules on a small group of people before it expands to the whole population. The party has rolled out accompanying policies along the same sentiment in the past week. For example, China Mobile, the largest state-owned telecommunication company in the country, has set up overseas call and text blocking services in certain areas.
What to look out for? The party’s 20th national congress is no doubt one of the most important meetings for all China watchers. We would have more information on where the party is at after the meeting. It is set to happen in the fall this year.
Other news we follow:
In other news, Israel have reportedly decided not to open any criminal investigation into the fatal shooting of the Palestinian journalist Shireen Abu Akleh, even though newly released video appears to contradict the Israeli army’s claim that the journalist was standing close to Palestinian militants when she was shot last week in the occupied West Bank.