Lebanon turns to Egypt for gas; China wants to review all social media replies before posting

And Sweden says no to Huawei, again.

In the Middle East:

Lebanon signed a natural gas deal with Egypt and Syria to ease its energy crisis

The details: The deal, signed on Tuesday, will have Egypt shipping 650 million cubic metres of natural gas per year to Lebanon via the Arab Gas Pipeline passing through Syria, Reuters reports

The gas could add some 450 megawatts, or around four extra hours of power per day to the grid. The financial terms of the agreement were not fully revealed but a statement issued by Lebanese and Egyptian government officials said the price offered was "30 percent less than global market prices." As part of the deal, Syria will not get any cash but will take a small amount of the gas. Egypt, Lebanon, and Syria have been in talks since late 2021 to finalize the U.S.-backed deal.

Why this matters: The deal could be a lifeline for Lebanon, which is suffering from a severe energy crisis and fuel shortages. Lebanon's state-run power company produces just a couple of hours of power per day, forcing many to rely on expensive private generators during blackouts. The aging infrastructure has not been able to provide 24-hour electricity in the country since the end of the civil war in 1990. Lebanon’s failing energy sector has been the main driver of the country’s enormous debt.

This is the third energy agreement that Lebanon signs in recent months. The cash-strapped state signed a contract in July 2021 to resell 1 million tons of otherwise unusable Iraqi fuel oil to companies that would provide usable fuel. The Iraqi arrangement expires this year. Lebanon also inked a deal to purchase electricity from Jordan in January. The deal with Jordanians— which is a band-aid solution expected to supply the energy-deprived country with about two hours of power a day — has not been implemented yet.

The caveat: Lebanon won’t be getting gas from Egypt anytime soon. The Lebanon-Egypt deal requires approval from the World Bank, which will be financing the project, and the U.S. for compliance with its Syria sanctions program.

The World Bank’s loan is hinging on whether Lebanon enacts long-awaited power sector reforms which include establishing a regulatory framework, increasing tariffs, and upscaling renewable energy production. Lebanon's cabinet passed a broad electricity reform plan in March but has yet to implement key components.

The transmission through Syria had also prompted concerns about exposure to U.S. sanctions, which penalize anyone dealing with President Bashar Al Assad’s government. U.S. officials said they gave countries "pre-clearance" to engage in talks but could only waive the sanctions after the contracts were signed and deemed compliant.

Is Lebanon actually receiving Egyptian gas? Well, that’s debatable. There is an indication that the gas is in fact Israeli. For one, an Israeli news channel reported last year that natural gas meant to be supplied to Lebanon, under a deal sponsored by the U.S., will actually be Israeli gas. The report stated that the deal would be presented as if the gas was coming from Egypt via the Arab Gas Pipeline in order to avoid the risk of political embarrassment for all parties involved. 

The report could very well be true, especially since Egypt signed an agreement in 2020 to receive Israeli gas via pipeline for liquefaction and re-export. Egypt later inked a trilateral cooperation with Israel and the E.U. that would see Israeli gas supplies to Egypt’s liquefaction plants increase.

It also appears to be unrealistic for Egypt to export its gas under current circumstances. Prior to the 2020 agreement, the country had exported its gas to neighbouring Jordan, but the exports have since stopped. If Cairo was to resume exports, it would either have to stop importing Israeli gas or make significant modifications to its natural gas infrastructure that could take up to 10 years to complete. With gas slated to flow to Lebanon in the next few months, Israel seems to be the feasible source.

While a former Egyptian government official told Mada Masr that the gas feeding the pipeline going to Lebanon would be coming from the country’s national gas network, industry experts said that was physically impossible to achieve. Egyptian dwindling gas reserves and increasing domestic demands mean it’s unreasonable for the gas earmarked for Lebanon to be Egyptian.

Who cares if the gas is Israeli? Receiving gas from Israel falls under the umbrella of normalizing ties with the occupying state, an action that a majority of the Lebanese public opposes. Lebanon and Israel have no diplomatic relations and are still formally at war after decades of conflict. However, Hezbollah, known for its strong stance against Israel, doesn’t seem to mind the deal. A source close to the Lebanese party told Mada Masr that the deal had many benefits, including the return of Hezbollah’s close ally Syria to the Arab fold and opening the door for waiving sanctions against the Syrian regime.

More trade-offs: Receiving Israeli gas under the table isn’t the only compromise the Lebanese government seems to have made by signing the import deal. A government official confirmed Thursday that Lebanon would concede in the decades-long maritime border dispute with Israel because of the deal. This means the Lebanese government is giving up on Karish, the gas field in the disputed area, and the lucrative revenues exploiting it could bring. It’s worth mentioning that the U.S., the mediator in Israel-Lebanon border talks, has promised to lobby the World Bank on Lebanon’s behalf to expedite the funding of gas imports. 

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In China 

China wants to review all online comments before they are posted

The big news: The Chinese internet regulator, Cyberspace Administration of China, released a draft last Friday proposing tighter censorship on social media. The new guideline, if passed, would require a review of comments before they are posted — a process platforms now apply to some but not all comments, Axios reports. 

The nitty-gritty: While users won’t have to disclose their identity publicly under the proposed guideline, only those who have registered with their real names and identification numbers could comment —a policy that the Chinese Communist Party started implementing in 2017 when all new social media users were asked to register with their legal names. In addition, platforms are required to offer a copy of all the messages featured on the screen during live streaming and are encouraged to beef up their online management technology and editorial team to comply with the coming restrictions. 

It’s worth noting that major Chinese platforms such as Sina Weibo had been voluntarily applying the real-name restriction before the government stepped in. Over the years, real-name registration grew more stringent and has been introduced to a variety of online users including teenage video game players.

Between the lines: The new policy is undoubtedly yet another sign of a tighter government grip on the online community. Till now, the government has been mostly lenient towards online replies to comments and messages during live streaming. While users currently run the risk of being punished for anti-government speech, such reprimand usually happens after the comments are already made. But it seems that is about to change with the new law. 

The caveat: Both the finalization and implementation of this draft could take longer than expected. The execution of a thorough review of all online replies prior to publication can take a considerable amount of manpower and capital. 

Huawei lost Swedish appeal over 5G gear

The decoupling: On Wednesday, a Swedish appeals court upheld a ruling by a lower court that banned Huawei from selling its 5G equipment in the country, Reuters reports.

The backgrounder: The Chinese telecom giant appealed to the higher court last year and said it wanted the European Union's highest court to weigh in if the legal action fell through. The case was expected to set a precedent in the continent since Huawei was taking legal actions in multiple countries across the region. 

The bigger picture: The U.S. was the first to raise national security concerns over big Chinese telecoms. Other Five Eyes members including the U.K., Australia, and New Zealand, then followed suit. Canada recently banned Huawei and another Chinese state-backed company ZTE. In Europe, the scene is a bit more complicated with the European Union issuing security guidelines for next-generation high-speed wireless networks that didn’t specifically ban Huawei and Belgium dropping Huawei’s 5G equipment from its major telecom companies.