Canada Doesn’t Just Have a China Problem — It Has a Strategy Problem
Interview with Dennis Molinaro on EVs, Security, and Strategy
Dear China watchers,
Over the past year, Canada’s China debate has followed a familiar rhythm: concern, investigation, and then — often — policy drift.
Chinese electric vehicles.
Foreign interference warnings.
New memoranda of understanding that quietly raise eyebrows in policy circles.
But after sitting down with national security expert Dennis Molinaro for a wide-ranging conversation this week, I was struck by something more fundamental.
Canada may not just have a China problem.
It may have a China strategy problem.
In our discussion, Molinaro offered a blunt assessment of Ottawa’s current posture. In his view, Canada is still largely “reacting from one disaster to the next” when it comes to Beijing. It’s a line that resonates because it helps explain why many of Canada’s China decisions feel episodic rather than coordinated.
Take the current debate over Chinese EVs.
Publicly, much of the conversation has focused on affordability, market access, and consumer choice. But as Molinaro noted in our interview, the concern within parts of the national security community is less about today’s price competition and more about tomorrow’s structural dependence.
That distinction matters.
At one point in our conversation, I asked whether Canada might already have crossed certain risk thresholds in its China policy. Molinaro’s response was strikingly direct:
“I think we’ve already crossed it.”
The harder question, and one that still appears unsettled, is where Canada intends to draw its long-term guardrails.
Historically, Ottawa has preferred a dual-track approach: cooperate where possible, push back where necessary. But that model depends heavily on clarity — both in how risks are assessed and how red lines are communicated across government and industry.
Right now, that clarity still appears uneven.
What stood out most in my conversation with Molinaro was not alarmism but uncertainty. Even among experienced observers, there remains an ongoing debate about whether Canada is being sufficiently forward-looking in how it manages economic exposure to Beijing — particularly in emerging sectors like electric vehicles.
For serious China watchers, that strategic ambiguity may be the real story to monitor in the year ahead.
If you’re interested in the full discussion — including our exchanges on foreign interference, EV supply chains, and Canada’s broader China posture — the interview is now available below.
As always, I’m curious what you’re seeing in your own work.
Is Ottawa becoming more strategic on China — or are we still mostly reacting?